The Trump Factor: Why U.S. Political Unpredictability is Sparking a German Gold Rush

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sent shockwaves through German economic circles, specifically regarding the safety of the nation’s gold stored in New York. Analysts are pointing to the “America First” doctrine as a primary reason why Germany should reconsider its reliance on the U.S. Federal Reserve. The perceived unpredictability of the current administration has turned a technical banking arrangement into a high-stakes political issue.
With 1,236 tonnes of gold currently housed in the United States, Germany has a significant amount of skin in the game. This portion of the reserve is worth approximately €164 billion, a figure that highlights the immense trust Berlin has historically placed in Washington. However, that trust is being tested as experts warn of potential “asset freezes” or diplomatic pressure.
Emanuel Mönch, a former head of research at the Bundesbank, has been vocal about the need for a “strategic exit.” He argues that the risk-reward ratio of storing gold in the U.S. has fundamentally shifted. For Mönch, the goal isn’t just to move metal, but to ensure that Germany remains the sole master of its economic destiny in an era of global volatility.
This sentiment is echoed by politicians who worry that the gold could become a bargaining chip. The idea that a sovereign nation’s wealth could be used as leverage in a “Greenland-style” diplomatic provocation has moved the conversation from the fringes to the Bundestag. The debate is no longer about “if” the gold is safe, but “how long” it will remain so.
Despite these concerns, the Bundesbank president, Joachim Nagel, has attempted to provide a steady hand. He insists that there is no cause for alarm and that the relationship with the New York Fed remains professional and reliable. However, the government’s message of “all is well” is competing with an increasingly vocal movement demanding the bullion’s immediate return.